The day-to-day realities of British farming can feel far removed from events in the Middle East. However, the current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is a stark reminder of how quickly global tensions can translate into local pressure - even from half a world away.
The Strait is one of the world’s most critical trade routes. Around one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade passes through it, alongside significant volumes of oil and gas, according to the European Commission. When that flow is interrupted, the effects are certainly not self-contained. Typically, energy prices surge, transport becomes increasingly more expensive and agricultural inputs are caught squarely in the middle.
Recent data already shows how quickly markets react. In early March 2026, oil prices rose by over a quarter (27%) in a mere matter of days, reflecting the scale of uncertainty in global supply chains. That movement feeds directly into farm-level costs, particularly diesel, which underpins almost every operation. Meanwhile, fertiliser costs have almost doubled for some farmers.
For many, this is an acute concern happening right now, and careful planning will be needed to navigate it.
This incredibly unwelcome disruption comes at a particularly sensitive point in the farming calendar, when spring cultivations and drilling for crops such as barley, oats and maize are already well underway. Within weeks, attention will turn to root crop harvesting, followed closely by silage and haymaking for livestock systems.
Farming must operate within fixed seasonal windows, and these cannot be easily adjusted; a delay of days can easily propagate into a pronounced, weeks-long dilemma, with lasting consequences for yield, quality and profitability.
The question of what inputs will cost is concerning, yes, but not nearly as startling as the unavoidable predicament we will face should they not be available when they are needed most.
There is already evidence that disruption in the Strait is affecting shipping flows, with knock-on effects including higher transport costs, longer delivery routes and increased insurance premiums. So even where supply is secured, timing becomes less predictable.
Fertiliser prices have been rising steadily, and the current disruption risks are accelerating that trend.
The global fertiliser market is a tightly interwoven network. Supply interruptions in one region can, and do, constrict availability elsewhere, pushing prices upward even where direct reliance on Gulf imports is quite limited. At the same time, fertiliser production depends heavily on energy inputs such as natural gas, meaning that climbing energy costs further compound the issue.
For fuel, this link is decidedly more direct, especially for farms. Diesel prices track movements in oil markets, and the recent volatility has already translated into sharp increases. The cost of red diesel has risen far faster than domestic fuel prices (up 17% according to the RAC), almost doubling to £1.20 or even £1.30 per litre, plus VAT. Longer term, for many farms, a rise of almost a third (30%) in fuel costs is now a realistic working assumption that owners will need to shoulder, but red diesel is also being rationed, meaning farmers are having to be careful about how much they use their machines.
The pressure is already beginning to seep through into contractor pricing. Many contractors operate on a fixed-rate per acre or hectare, which is principally designed to cover machinery, labour and fuel costs, alongside a small margin. As fuel costs rise, that margin is very quickly eroded.
In response, some are now beginning to introduce fuel escalator clauses to reflect the growing volatility in energy markets. While understandable, this adds another layer of uncertainty for farmers who rely on contracted services at key points in the season. As a result, forward planning and early conversations between farmers and contractors will be even more essential to manage expectations on both sides.
While rising costs are an obvious concern, availability may prove to be the more immediate challenge. Fertiliser markets rely on continuous production and distribution, rather than large stockpiles. When supply chains are meaningfully disrupted, there is a very limited buffer. Even if tensions ease, restarting production and transport can take time, potentially leaving gaps at critical points in the season.
This creates understandable uncertainty around deliveries for farmers. Inputs may arrive later than planned, or in smaller quantities than expected. In a sector in which timing is paramount, that uncertainty can be just as damaging as sudden price increases.
Planning is essential, not as a theoretical exercise, but as a practical response to the developing risk. From an operational perspective, this means thinking through contingencies. What happens if fuel availability becomes constrained? Which operations are essential and, by extension, which can be adjusted or delayed? Are there efficiencies that can reduce reliance on diesel at peak periods?
There are, of course, no perfect answers, but asking the questions early creates flexibility.
Financial planning is equally critical. Revisiting budgets and running through hypothetical “what if” scenarios can help quantify the potential impact of rising input costs. What happens if fuel increases by a further 10% or 20%? How would margins respond if fertiliser costs rise later in the year?
Understanding those pressures in advance allows decisions to be made from a position of control, rather than reaction.
The ongoing disarray in the Strait is definitely disquieting, but it is not without precedent. Agriculture has always operated against a backdrop of ambiguity, whether that's driven by weather, markets or, as is now the case, geopolitics.
For now, the most effective response is not alarm, but awareness. The situation may be outside farmers’ control, but how they prepare for it is not.
Duncan & Toplis provides accounting and business services specifically designed to support farmers and agricultural businesses, including budgeting and forecasting. To find out more, please contact us.
